Japan's Population Decline: Predictions Warn of Only One Child by 2720
Experts project stark future for Japan's demographic landscape as birth rates hit record lows.
A recent warning from Hiroshi Yoshida, a specialist in "aging society" at Tohoku University’s Research Center for the Economics and Society of Aging, projects that if current trends persist, Japan may see its population of children drop to just one by January 5, 2720. This estimation, part of Yoshida's ongoing research, indicates that there will be merely one child aged 14 or under in Japan at that time.
Yoshida has been issuing annual forecasts since 2012, utilizing a unique countdown clock to track the anticipated decline in Japan’s child population.
His projections are based on analyzing annual reductions in the number of births, calculated from the difference between the counts in April of the previous year and the current year.
The latest estimates, which assume a consistent annual decline in birth rates of 2.3% as recorded in April 2023, suggest a significant acceleration of demographic decline compared to earlier forecasts made in 2023. Current birth statistics reveal that the birth rate in Japan has plummeted to an unprecedented low of 1.20 in 2023. In the capital city of Tokyo, this figure is even lower, indicating a concerning trend in population growth.
Several factors contribute to this decline, notably the decreasing marriage rates among the population.
According to the 2020 census data, about 28% of men aged 50 had never been married, while the figure for women was around 17.8%.
These numbers mark a significant change, as they were considerably lower in 1990, when only 5.6% of men and 4.3% of women were unmarried by those ages.
Since 2022, the number of births has remained below 800,000.
Concurrently, Japan's population has decreased by approximately 831,872 individuals, reflecting a scenario where deaths outweigh births, with a record number of 1,590,503 deaths reported by government sources.
The number of marriages has also declined to a historic low of 489,281, the fewest since the end of World War II, while divorces rose to 187,798.
In response to these demographic challenges, policymakers are exploring various strategies to encourage marriage and increase the birth rate.
One potential solution is the rise of marriage applications, which have gained popularity among younger individuals seeking partners.
A survey conducted last year indicated that one in four couples under 40, who married within the year, met their partners through such platforms.
In a proactive move, Tokyo's metropolitan government launched its own marriage application last year, aiming to assist residents in finding marriage partners.
These developments reflect the ongoing struggles Japan faces regarding its demographic stability and highlight the urgency of addressing the issues surrounding declining birth rates and marriage rates.
Yoshida has been issuing annual forecasts since 2012, utilizing a unique countdown clock to track the anticipated decline in Japan’s child population.
His projections are based on analyzing annual reductions in the number of births, calculated from the difference between the counts in April of the previous year and the current year.
The latest estimates, which assume a consistent annual decline in birth rates of 2.3% as recorded in April 2023, suggest a significant acceleration of demographic decline compared to earlier forecasts made in 2023. Current birth statistics reveal that the birth rate in Japan has plummeted to an unprecedented low of 1.20 in 2023. In the capital city of Tokyo, this figure is even lower, indicating a concerning trend in population growth.
Several factors contribute to this decline, notably the decreasing marriage rates among the population.
According to the 2020 census data, about 28% of men aged 50 had never been married, while the figure for women was around 17.8%.
These numbers mark a significant change, as they were considerably lower in 1990, when only 5.6% of men and 4.3% of women were unmarried by those ages.
Since 2022, the number of births has remained below 800,000.
Concurrently, Japan's population has decreased by approximately 831,872 individuals, reflecting a scenario where deaths outweigh births, with a record number of 1,590,503 deaths reported by government sources.
The number of marriages has also declined to a historic low of 489,281, the fewest since the end of World War II, while divorces rose to 187,798.
In response to these demographic challenges, policymakers are exploring various strategies to encourage marriage and increase the birth rate.
One potential solution is the rise of marriage applications, which have gained popularity among younger individuals seeking partners.
A survey conducted last year indicated that one in four couples under 40, who married within the year, met their partners through such platforms.
In a proactive move, Tokyo's metropolitan government launched its own marriage application last year, aiming to assist residents in finding marriage partners.
These developments reflect the ongoing struggles Japan faces regarding its demographic stability and highlight the urgency of addressing the issues surrounding declining birth rates and marriage rates.
Translation:
Translated by AI
