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Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Investor Sentiments Shift as Gold Prices Surge Amid Political Uncertainty

Global investors react to Donald Trump’s presidency and fluctuating markets, driving gold prices to historic highs.
As Donald Trump's second presidential term commences, investor sentiment in U.S. stock exchanges has been a mix of optimism and caution.

Dubbed the "Trump Guarantee," many investors had initially believed that the Republican president would take swift action to stabilize economic policies in the event of market declines.

However, the S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 6% since the November elections, undermining confidence in Trump's ability to safeguard U.S. markets.

Supporters of the idea of a "Trump Guarantee" argue that the current dip is relatively modest and does not yet warrant presidential intervention.

Some analysts express skepticism about the rationale behind attributing a stability guarantee to Trump's unpredictable behavior.

Their forecasts have been validated by recent actions, which include Trump’s contentious remarks about the sovereignty of Canada and Denmark, a widening trade war, and his alignment with Russia regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine—all occurring within the early days of his new term.

In this volatile environment, gold, often perceived as a safe haven, has become the true "Trump Guarantee" for numerous global investors.

Gold prices have soared by 10% since Trump's election victory, and a staggering 25% since Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, pushing prices to exceed $3,000 per ounce in recent days.

Traditionally, a "guarantee" in financial terms refers to a pre-set option to sell an asset to limit losses.

While physical gold does not fit neatly into this definition, it has recently illustrated a capacity for price increases against the backdrop of anticipated disruptions, potentially offsetting losses in stock portfolios.

Proponents of gold investment celebrate what they consider a historic triumph, while critics experience notable frustration, continuing a long-standing ideological battle.

Advocates argue that gold is worth holding due to its historical value, often expressing distrust in fiat currencies issued by central banks.

They may label the precious metal as a "hedge against inflation," despite ongoing debates over its efficacy.

Underlying these beliefs are fears of global disorder, which also feed skepticism regarding the value of gold.

Detractors mockingly suggest that gold enthusiasts should similarly invest in ammunition and canned goods, akin to preparations for an apocalyptic scenario.

Gold, like bitcoin or art, does not yield direct returns; there are no dividends or bond interest associated with it.

Furthermore, physical gold incurs a negative yield when factoring in storage and security costs.

Despite personal reluctance to transition into a gold enthusiast, there is growing curiosity about it, as low-probability but potential crises, such as American debt issues and domestic democratic threats, appear more conceivable.

Since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, central banks have aggressively increased their gold reserves.

Central banks have become crucial supporters of the gold market, now viewing gold as a reserve asset that bolsters economic confidence during crises.

This is reflected by a 90% rise in gold prices since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, emphasizing gold's resilience against confiscation compared to foreign currency reserves.

When considering individual investment in gold, opinions may vary.

Investment in gold as a standalone asset is often viewed skeptically, as yield-less assets are typically classified as speculative.

However, holding gold as a hedge against potential declines in equities and bonds has its advocates.

Many investors favor gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a cost-efficient way to track gold's price.

Among these are the SPDR Gold Shares, listed on U.S. exchanges, and the iShares Physical Gold ETC, available on the London Stock Exchange.

For those who still prefer direct ownership, specialized services like Bullion Vault offer purchasing and storage solutions.

Alternatively, some investors choose to acquire coins or gold bars directly, an option growing in popularity among individuals.

Purchases from this category accounted for a quarter of total global gold demand, which totaled 4,553 tons last year, surpassing central bank purchases.

However, this route involves the challenge of securely storing valuable assets without drawing the attention of thieves.

One individual during the financial crisis humorously used a small gold bar as a doorstop, downplaying its value by claiming it was merely a promotional item from a discount gift shop.

While such tactics may be less advisable, the levity the individual employed highlights the larger financial challenges faced during global crises.
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