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Saturday, May 10, 2025

Oil Prices Decline Following U.S.-Russia Energy Truce Agreement

Oil Prices Decline Following U.S.-Russia Energy Truce Agreement

Analysts indicate potential market shifts amidst geopolitical tensions and changing supply dynamics.
Oil prices experienced a decline after Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a temporary halt on attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, following a proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The futures for Brent crude fell by 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.44 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) saw a decrease of 15 cents, or 0.2%, settling at $66.75 per barrel.

Despite the agreement to pause attacks on energy facilities, President Putin did not consent to a full 30-day ceasefire, a move that President Trump had hoped for.

Russia remains a significant player in the global oil supply, though its production has declined since the initiation of hostilities, which led to Western sanctions on its energy sector.

Market analysts noted that a potential ceasefire could lessen sanctions, thereby increasing oil supply and possibly reducing prices.

Furthermore, U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have raised recession fears, contributing negatively to oil prices due to anticipated declines in crude demand.

Continued instability in the Middle East has limited the extent of the drop in oil prices.

President Trump reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to attack Houthi forces in Yemen, stating that Iran would be held accountable for any actions by the group that disrupt maritime activities in the Red Sea.

In the midst of these developments, Palestinian health authorities reported that Israeli airstrikes in Gaza resulted in the deaths of at least 400 individuals, further escalating risks to oil supply from the region.

Recent data from U.S. oil inventories showed mixed trends, with crude stocks rising while fuel inventories declined.

According to sources citing the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil stocks increased by 4.59 million barrels for the week ending March 14. Conversely, gasoline inventories fell by 1.71 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 2.15 million barrels.

Goldman Sachs indicated that oil prices may be at risk of declining in the medium term due to tariff issues and excess production capacity, though a slight rise is expected in the coming months.

In a report released Tuesday, the U.S. lender revised its Brent crude price forecast down by $5 to a range of $65 to $80 per barrel.

Despite this adjustment, Goldman Sachs noted that market assessments of future volatility and upside price potential remain low.

The anticipated near-term price increase is attributed to likely reductions in supply resulting from ongoing sanctions.

Recently, oil prices managed a slight recovery above $70 per barrel, reflecting the volatility of recent geopolitical developments, yet investors continue to focus on the potential for price declines.
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