With the impending launch of the digital euro, European officials confront increasing urgency over digital currencies and the implications of U.S. dollar dominance.
Philippe Lane, the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), has indicated that the launch of the digital euro is now inevitable, emphasizing the growing urgency of this initiative.
Earlier in the month, Pascal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup, noted the increasing necessity for the Eurozone to advance towards a digital currency.
Amid ongoing challenges such as U.S. tariffs enacted by
Donald Trump, European stakeholders are alert to a broader geoeconomic front: the push by the U.S. to maintain dominance over the international payments system.
This concern has intensified with executive orders promoting the use of private sector 'stablecoins' denominated in dollars for global transactions.
There is significant speculation that the U.S. administration will leverage this push moving forward.
Key figures within the administration, such as
Elon Musk, known for his role in PayPal, and Howard Lutnick, connected to the stablecoin issuer Tether, have deep affiliations with payment technologies.
Despite not aligning with traditional power elite views, these innovators share a common belief in the strategic importance of retaining American control over the global payments framework.
The global payments system is currently experiencing a substantial transformation driven by both political and technological factors.
The weaponization of the dollar-based financial system, most notably through U.S. actions that have barred adversaries from access to the SWIFT interbank network, has sparked intensified efforts to seek alternatives.
Proposals include the establishment of a currency and payment system managed specifically for the BRICS nations.
Furthermore, modern technologies such as stablecoins offer an immediate, low-cost alternative to the traditional and often cumbersome banking messaging system.
The contest for dominance over future payment systems is well underway, with the United States intent on securing victory.
While European public awareness of the stakes may remain low, officials within the Eurozone recognize the critical nature of this technological control over the economy.
The driving force behind the digital euro project lies in its potential to serve as an official digital currency issued by a central bank.
If launched efficiently and swiftly, the digital euro could effectively compete with the appeal of dollar-denominated stablecoins.
Without this initiative, Europe faces risks that have been evident for years, dating back to
Facebook's troubled proposal for a digital currency, Libra, in 2019. Europe's concerns have roots that extend further back, highlighted by the repercussions of U.S. sanctions on Iran, exposing Europe's inability to operate independently when it comes to conducting payments without routing through banks linked to the U.S. financial system.
The Eurozone's reliance on U.S. payment systems is particularly concerning.
According to the ECB, nearly two-thirds of card payment transactions in the Eurozone are processed through non-European service providers.
Furthermore, 13 out of the 20 countries using the euro lack national card payment systems.
In some cases, as noted by a European central banker, purchasing basic goods often necessitates reliance on cash or on international cards like Visa or Mastercard.
This dependency is further echoed in the rapid proliferation of smartphone payment applications.
The widespread adoption of U.S. stablecoins presents the acute risk of 'digital dollarization', wherein commercial platforms might begin to encourage users to price products and execute transactions using dollar-denominated digital tokens.
Such developments could undermine central banks' ability to influence local monetary policy.
Critics of the digital euro often refer to it as a 'solution in search of a problem'.
Nevertheless, indicators suggest a declining skepticism toward its necessity.
The digital euro initiative is primarily defensive in character, driven by the need to innovate in response to external pressures.
Additionally, a significant justification for developing a domestic digital payment technology lies in the potential to offer a cost-effective alternative to foreign payment service providers, effectively offsetting what can be viewed as an 'economic transaction tax' imposed within the Eurozone.
The digital euro could also contend with dollar-denominated stablecoins in international transactions.
The ECB is currently examining ways to connect the digital euro with non-euro currencies, although this effort must extend further.
Plans under consideration for a consumer-oriented version may impose relatively low limits on the amounts individuals can keep in digital euro wallets to prevent a mass withdrawal of deposits from conventional banks.
However, such limitations may not adequately meet the requirements of businesses particularly regarding seamless cross-border supply chain payments.
The most significant advantage is that the digital euro will foster a new technological economy through its backbone of digital infrastructure for automated contracts and secure payment pathways ensured by the central bank.
This transformation may parallel the impact of smartphones that enabled the rise of the app economy.
Apart from financial independence, this initiative presents an invaluable opportunity for Europe to narrow the technological innovation gap compared to leading entities.
The relevance and timing for launching the digital euro appear increasingly critical.