Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of an economic recession in the United States to 45% over the next 12 months.

This revision places the investment bank alongside others that have adjusted their forecasts due to escalating concerns surrounding a trade war, exacerbated by comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

The adjustment signifies a revision from a previous estimate of 35%, reflecting a significant tightening in financial conditions and growing political uncertainty, which is expected to lead to a decline in capital spending that exceeds earlier projections by Goldman Sachs.

In addition to Goldman Sachs, several other investment banks have elevated their recession risk assessments in the past week.

JPMorgan, for instance, estimates a 60% chance of recession occurring in the United States and worldwide.

Goldman Sachs had previously adjusted its U.S. recession probability to 35%, having raised it from an earlier estimate of 20% just a month ago.

The bank underscored that the economic fundamentals are no longer as robust as they were in prior years.