As Chinese products increasingly penetrate global markets, commercial aircraft manufactured in China remain a rare sight on the international stage.

Despite efforts towards expansion, COMAC, the state-owned aircraft manufacturer, has not yet made significant inroads in international markets with its passenger planes.

In recent developments, a Chinese airline opted not to accept the delivery of two Boeing aircraft from the United States last month.

These planes were ready for delivery and painted in the airline's colors but were rejected due to high retaliatory tariffs imposed by Beijing on American imports, making the acquisition economically disadvantageous.

Although these tariffs were later rolled back, the incident highlights a deeper strategic dilemma facing China: its heavy reliance on Western aircraft manufacturing not only poses a technical challenge but serves as a potential lever in the hands of its rivals amid a globally charged geopolitical environment.

For decades, China's attempts to establish a national civil aviation industry have met skepticism, rooted in limited export opportunities and dependence on Western expertise.

However, this view fails to capture the profound transformations underway in this vital sector.

The aviation industry, characterized by its quasi-monopolistic nature and complex supply chains, enables China to disrupt the status quo without needing to control global markets.

Central to China’s aspirations in commercial aviation is the C919, COMAC’s narrow-body aircraft designed to compete with Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320.

The C919 represents a cornerstone of Beijing's ambition to break the Western monopoly in the sector.

State-owned airlines have signed agreements to purchase 100 units each, and as of now, 17 C919 aircraft have entered service since commercial flights commenced earlier in 2023.

COMAC has received over 1,000 orders, primarily from the domestic market, along with orders from Brazil, Indonesia, and Laos, indicating nascent interest beyond Chinese borders.

Although these figures remain modest compared to the 766 aircraft delivered by Airbus last year, COMAC's target of producing over 200 aircraft annually by 2029 appears increasingly attainable.

The company benefits from unique competitive advantages, bolstered by full government support, unlike its Western counterparts.

Beijing controls the three largest state-owned airlines, which together account for approximately 43% of domestic capacity, providing COMAC with a robust potential customer base.

This advantage is further enhanced by the size of China's air travel market, projected to surpass the United States as the largest global aviation market by 2043, according to industry forecasts.

Estimates suggest that meeting this demand will require over 8,800 aircraft, translating to one in every five commercial aircraft expected to be sold globally.

COMAC aims to increase its production capacity for the C919 to 50 aircraft this year, which could grant it a market share of nearly 6% of total global narrow-body deliveries based on 2024 figures, a significant achievement for a relatively new participant in this industry.

This shift holds implications for the market share and long-term profits of Boeing and Airbus, especially within the Chinese market.

Despite its current momentum, COMAC faces substantial challenges.

The C919 relies heavily on imported components, with estimates indicating that at least 40% of the aircraft's systems— including engines and avionics—are sourced from foreign suppliers, many of which are based in the United States.

This dependence exposes COMAC to export restrictions and rising geopolitical risks, particularly as U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate, raising the possibility of further imposition of restrictions on sensitive technologies.

Moreover, COMAC lacks international certifications from U.S. and European aviation authorities.

Even if COMAC attempts to replace foreign suppliers with domestic alternatives, this would require a lengthy and costly re-certification process.

The C919 received its airworthiness certification in China in 2022, after 15 years from the approval of its initial development plan.

Any significant redesign would lead to further delays in a market where domestic demand is accelerating rapidly.

The pressing demand for aircraft in China creates an urgent reality that cannot be deferred.

The immediate need for planes—especially narrow-body models like the A320—cannot await the expansion of COMAC's production lines.

Consequently, the European manufacturer Airbus has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the current tensions between the U.S. and China, capturing more than half of the market share in mainland China, a figure expected to grow as Boeing continues to grapple with quality control issues.

On the other hand, the long-term landscape may differ substantially.

China’s classification of aviation as a strategic industry, coupled with sustainable industrial policies, lays the groundwork for a market that may gradually tilt in favor of COMAC.

The Chinese manufacturer does not need to surpass Boeing or Airbus globally; securing a dominant share of the domestic Chinese market could reshape the entire commercial aviation structure.

While the C919 may not achieve the global reach of the 737 or A320, its existence signifies a critical turning point towards a world where nations are increasingly hesitant to entrust their economic futures to foreign suppliers.