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Thursday, Apr 03, 2025

Oil Prices Decline Amid Anticipation of Tariffs Announced by Trump

Market reacts to potential trade tensions as Brent and WTI crude settle lower.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders awaited the announcement of retaliatory tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled for Wednesday, which could intensify global trade tensions.

Despite this, concerns regarding supply disruptions due to Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Russian crude and potential military action against Iran have limited losses.

Brent crude futures dropped by 28 cents, or 0.37 percent, settling at $74.49 per barrel, after reaching a session high of over $75 per barrel.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by 28 cents, or 0.39 percent, to $71.20 per barrel.

Both crude benchmarks on Monday had recorded their highest settlement in five weeks.

Details regarding the size or scope of the impending tariffs have not been provided by the White House, which has left traders apprehensive.

Bob Yager, a director of energy futures at Mizuho, commented on the market's unease, stating, "The market is feeling some tension with less than 24 hours before the tariffs are imposed." He noted concerns that supply disruptions from Mexico, Venezuela, and Canada could occur, but forecasted that demand declines might outpace these supply reductions.

A Reuters poll conducted in March among 49 economists and analysts indicated expectations for oil prices to remain under pressure throughout the year, as a result of U.S. tariffs and economic slowdowns in both India and China, coupled with increased supply from OPEC+.

The implementation of tariffs on Russian oil, the world's second-largest oil exporter, is expected to disrupt global supply chains and negatively impact major importers like China and India.

Trump has also threatened similar tariffs on Iran and indicated potential military actions if an agreement on Tehran's nuclear program with the White House is not reached.

Prices received some support after Russia ordered a key oil export terminal in Kazakhstan to shut down two of its three berths amid a production quota dispute between Kazakhstan and OPEC+.

Sources from the oil sector indicated that Kazakhstan would need to curtail production as a result, with repairs at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal anticipated to take over a month.

Market participants are awaiting the OPEC ministerial committee meeting scheduled for April 5, which will review production policies.

Sources suggested that OPEC+ is expected to implement a production increase of 135,000 barrels per day in May, following a similar agreement for April.

Additionally, five analysts surveyed by Reuters predict that U.S. crude inventories are likely to have decreased by approximately 2.1 million barrels in the week ending March 28.
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